Issued Sunday March 2, 2025 7:50 P.M. MST
Tonight…Increasing clouds and not as cold. Patchy freezing fog and low clouds developing in the valleys. Lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s with lower 30s around 5000 feet. Light wind.
Monday…Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain and snow showers. Snow level near 3500 to 4000 feet. Local snow accumulations of up to 1 inch possible above 5000 feet. Highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s with mid 30s around 5000 feet. Light wind.
Monday night…Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and low clouds developing in the valleys overnight. Scattered rain and snow showers. Snow level lowering to near 3000 feet. Local snow accumulations of up to 1 inch possible above 4000 feet. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s with lower 30s around 5000 feet. Light wind.
Tuesday…Areas of fog and low clouds in the valleys through late morning otherwise variable cloudiness with isolated rain and snow showers along and west of the Cabinet Mountains. Snow level near 3000 to 3500 feet. Highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s with mid 30s around 5000 feet. Light north wind.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY):
Wednesday…A chance of rain and snow showers in the valleys with a chance of snow showers in the mountains. Lows in the lower to mid 30s with near 30 around 5000 feet. Highs in the 40s with lower 30s around 5000 feet.
Thursday and Friday…Dry. Lows in the 20s with mid 20s around 5000 feet. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s with mid 30s around 5000 feet.
Saturday and Sunday…Unsettled and mild with a chance of valley rain showers and high mountain snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s with lower 30s around 5000 feet. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lower 40s around 5000 feet.
In-Depth Weather Discussion for Northwest Montana/North Idaho/Northern Rockies
ISSUED 03/02/2025 8:05 P.M. MST/7:05 P.M. PST
SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY):
Upper level ridging that has brought well above average temperatures and our first false spring of the year will continue to slowly weaken, but not completely break down as a disorganized and split flow in the jet stream causes stronger shortwaves approaching the West Coast to slide southeast into California for the next several days. Our region will come under the influence of a weak shortwave dropping down in northwest flow across Canada with an inverted surface trough extending north/northwest from the surface low passing through the Great Basin. This will help create some weak lift and shallow instability across the region on Monday for a better chance of rain and higher elevation snow showers but amounts are anticipated to be very light and not very meaningful at this time. The inverted trough axis will shift away from our region and be replaced by more surface ridging by Monday night into Tuesday as the next shortwave begins to track a bit further north into Oregon and Washington. The chances for showers will once again begin to increase especially across North Idaho on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to remain above seasonal averages for early March but cooler than what we have seen in recent days.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY):
A slightly further north passage of a shortwave will move into the region on Wednesday likely bringing our region the most widespread precipitation of this week but again amounts largely look light as this feature will be attempting to move into the mean upper level ridge which will remain in place across our region. By Thursday and Friday false spring number 2 may make an appearance as ridging re-amplifies across the Western US again and will bring temperatures around 10 or so degrees above early March seasonal averages. Some discrepancies as we head into next weekend with a much larger scale pattern change that looks to take place with a much more consolidated and stronger North Pacific jet stream approaching the West Coast. Some models want to bring in an upper level trough next weekend while others want to delay the onset of the incoming trough to the start of next week. For now have introduced chances for rain and high elevation snow across the region next Saturday and Sunday but this may need to be pushed back if the ridge holds on longer. The upcoming pattern change is highly likely to take place so it’s not really a matter of “if” but “when” it will occur. The MJO had weakened considerably and had fallen back to within the unit circle but is anticipated to re-emerge in Phase Space 2 or 3 in the next week or so which is what models may be picking up on. In any case with the lack of a winter we have had this season a colder, wetter March is the most likely outcome so let’s hope that we can at least build up some of the mid and high elevation snowpack before that too begins to melt off. We need to accumulate what we can with the little bit of time we have left before Spring sets into full gear. Meteorological Spring began on Saturday, March 1st.