North Idaho/Northwest Montana 2024-2025 Winter Outlook
The authors old home during winter with a 7 foot high fence.
The 2024 summer season has finally come to a close with autumn quickly beginning to wind down as of this writing. Many continue to ask about what the upcoming winter for 2024-2025 will look like for the Northern Rockies, specifically for North Idaho’s Bonner and Boundary Counties and Northwest Montana’s Lincoln and Sanders Counties. This article will hopefully answer that question and also provide some historical reference as well.
Before getting into the upcoming winter outlook let’s take a look back at the winter of 2023-2024. Back in November of 2023 I had stated that I anticipated the Winter of 2023-2024 to be largely warmer than average across the region with North Idaho near to above normal precipitation and Northwest Montana to be below average in precipitation. Other than the 2 week frigid cold snap that occurred in January of 2024 this outlook proved to be correct. Snowfall was well below average for the entire region while rainfall was above average across all of North Idaho well up into the mountains while precipitation was largely below average across all of Northwest Montana with the exception of the Bull Lake down to Noxon and Heron regions which were similar to North Idaho. I had also stated that there was a good probability of a significant ice storm regionwide for the winter and that did occur in the days after the brutal arctic air outbreak with several rounds of freezing rain across the entire region which resulted in several accidents and some power outages as well from trees snapping due to the weight of the ice. I had hoped when I had written this forecast that I would be wrong.
The summer of 2024 was much warmer than average and much drier than average overall. The exception to this was across Northwest Montana which had a wet August and September largely due to 2 upper level lows that brought an abundance of rainfall at the end of August and again a few weeks later in early September. On the whole though the entire region was well below average for summer precipitation.
As of this writing it is now mid October and time to look ahead to the upcoming winter season. Often many people, especially in the media like to pin everything on one factor, that being the El Nino Southern Oscillation (hereafter referred to as ENSO for short). This phenomenon is often referred to as El Nino in the warm episodes or La Nina in the cold episodes. While the ENSO pattern of the tropical Pacific does have some effect on the weather patterns for the winter season in our region, it is NOT the sole predictor of what type of winter the Northern Rockies will see and therefore it is inaccurate for people or the media to state that our region will have a warm and dry winter due to El Nino or a cold and snowy winter due to La Nina. The numbers simply DO NOT support those statements and it is foolish to put all of ones eggs in one basket so to speak. So what is the outlook for this upcoming winter? Here is the “official” map from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC for short) as of September 19, 2024:
Probability of temperatures across the country for meteorological winter which is December through February.
Probability of precipitation across the country for meteorological winter which is December through February.
From these two charts above we can see that the CPC is anticipating temperatures to lean below average for the winter months with a 33-40% chance of this occurring. As far as precipitation the CPC is anticipating precipitation to lean above average with a 40-50% chance of this occurring. If you were to stop reading right here you might go on to think that this simply means that our region is looking at a cold and snowy winter and you would be partially correct. What is somewhat interesting is that if we take these charts out one more month down the line and look at January, February and March 2025 we see a slightly stronger likelihood of below average temperatures and above average precipitation.
For this time period of mid meteorological winter into the first month of meteorological spring we see that CPC increases the chances of below average temperatures to 40-50% so while not a sure bet, increased chances that as the winter season progresses, confidence increases for below average temperatures. After several months of research into the winter outlook here is my best guess as to what I believe North Idaho’s Bonner and Boundary Counties and Northwest Montana’s Lincoln and Sanders Counties will experience. Read on for the outlook.
Currently the tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral temperature state with an expectation of a weak La Nina to develop. If this signal holds true the weakened state of La Nina helps to increase the likelihood of stronger Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) impacts on our region which is showing to be a far greater influencer of our weather patterns than simply the ENSO state. The MJO has a strong correlation in weather patterns across the Northwest US with stormy episodes lining up very well based on where the state and strength of the MJO is located. Another factor in the winter outlook I have considered is the state of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. There are two phases of this pattern, the positive phase and the negative phase. The positive phase often results in mild and drier conditions for our region while the negative phase often results in colder and stormier conditions. One other factor I like to look at to determine what the upcoming winter will look like is to go back in history and look at data and patterns leading up to the current state and the forecasted state the North American continent is in. Having said all of this and without getting into technical terms the winter of 2024-2025 for North Idaho and Northwest Montana is looking very similar to the winter of 2017-2018. In short that winter saw below average temperatures and well above average snowfall. As for the winter of 2024-2025, my prediction is for North Idaho and Northwest Montana to likely see below average temperatures with above average precipitation, largely in the form of snow. To be more specific average snowfall for the winter season for select communities in our region are as follows: Priest River, ID: 81.4 inches (records back to 1898), Bonners Ferry, ID: 65.4 inches (records back to 1907), Sandpoint, ID: 70.3 inches (records back to 1910), Heron, MT: 86 inches (records back to 1912), Eureka, MT: 43.1 inches (records back to 1960), and Trout Creek, MT: 57.6 inches (records back to 1960). As for potential snowfall amounts, there is a good possibility this winter for many North Idaho communities and some Northwest Montana communities west of the Cabinet Mountains, especially from Priest River, Priest Lake, Sandpoint, Sagle, Clark Fork, Heron and Bull Lake to see over 100 inches of total snowfall for the season (2017-2018 saw Priest River get 106.4 inches, Sandpoint: 90 inches, Heron: 150.9 inches, Yaak: 97.0 inches, Eureka: 74.2 inches). Other locations that are typically drier such as Bonners Ferry, ID, Eureka, MT and Thompson Falls may or may not see similar amounts but a strong probability of above seasonal averages in snowfall totals. Libby’s records are not available and that is why they are not on this list. In addition, for some good news for our ski resorts such as Schweitzer, Big Mountain and Turner Mountain this season looks a lot better than the dismal winter of 2023-2024 which saw mostly rain fall on the resorts. There is a very good chance for these mountains to see well above average snowfall this season and would not be entirely surprised if Schweitzer in particular saw over 350 inches of total snowfall. This is NOT a forecast for that amount but rather a simple speculation. In a nutshell I anticipate the entire region to see above average snowfall and more consistently below average temperatures. For the region to end up with the results I am anticipating the PNA pattern needs to shift and remain in a moderate negative phase, it has been in a moderate positive phase up until this writing; the MJO will need to maintain its intensity as it migrates in phases from the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific periodically throughout the winter season and for La Nina to remain in a weakened state. If these 3 factors line up as they did in the winter of 2017-2018 consistently then the odds are very high for a chilly and rather snowy winter region wide, especially for North Idaho and the portion of Northwest Montana from Bull Lake down to Heron and Noxon.
A few final notes of importance: snowfall amounts and overall winter outlooks for Northwest Montana are a bit more difficult east of the Cabinet Mountains and Sheep Range than they are for North Idaho and the Bull Lake to Heron to Noxon region. The reason for this high variability is that locations east of the Cabinet Mountains and Sheep Range in Northwest Montana are subject to the precipitation shadow of these mountains and also to snow bands that can set up once the larger scale weather systems pass through the region so snowfall amounts are far less uniform in this region than they are for much of North Idaho. The Sandpoint to Priest River to Clark Fork to Bull Lake and Heron region is in a favorable upslope component to incoming storm systems whereas Bonners Ferry is in the precipitation shadow of the Selkirk Mountains and therefore drier. While I anticipate the overall winter season temperatures to be below average I do not think that there will be an extreme bitter cold outbreak similar to last winter to occur across the region as the pattern will largely not support that type of arctic low to set up across our region. Will we see some rather cold outbreaks? Yes we will but they will likely not be nearly as cold or brutal as the one in January 2024 and temperatures of 30-45 below zero are highly unlikely this winter, possible but very unlikely. Ice storms are also not as likely this winter although the typical cold valleys in Northwest Montana such as around Libby usually get at least one minor ice event each winter due to that valleys ability to trap very cold air and not mix out. It is also possible that the arrival of snowfall on the valley floors may not arrive until later in the season perhaps towards the end of December or even early January although this is far from certain and I would not count on that happening but it is possible.
In summary the winter outlook for 2024-2025 for Bonner and Boundary Counties and Lincoln and Sanders Counties can be summed up as strong possibilities of below average temperatures and snowier than average conditions for the meteorological winter season which runs from December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025. The cold and unsettled conditions are also likely to persist well into meteorological spring of 2025 or March and possibly even April 2025. Time will tell as always but this is my best guess at this time. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or would like to know more information. This forecaster is hoping that his winter outlook is going to come to pass.